I'm slogging through my ballot, looking at California proposition 33. This proposition says that cities could impose rent control on more types of housing. Opponents say: Beware! NIMBY jerks will use this to prevent new construction by imposing unreasonable rent control so that new projects don't "pencil out." That sounds bad to me, but I'm not a real estate development expert. I dunno whether this is a real problem with the proposition or if it's just a YIMBY echo chamber convincing themselves it might be a problem. So I went looking for some real estate development experts.
My hypothesis: Suppose this proposition threatens new construction. Then among its opponents, along with landlords, I expect to see several building unions, contracting companies, construction companies. But when I look at the opponents, I see landlords. OK, there's also the California Council of Carpenters, one company with "construction" in its name, and another company with "builders." That's not zero but it sure ain't much. I expected to see a lot more than that. (For comparison, there are about a hundred companies with "apartments" in the name.) I tracked down the recommendations of the San Francisco Plumbers, Steamfitters, and HVAC; they had opinions about every California proposition except 33.The prop opponents are well-organized, must have tried to get endorsements from many organizations; but those organizations mostly replied "nah." This looks…like the fraction of Californians who believe the world is flat.
So I'll vote Yes. If this proposition wins and all California housing construction indeed grinds to a halt in a year: Sorry, I tried my best.
