I continue to check my little dashboard of #SanFrancisco COVID numbers each morning to decide whether to get coffee at an indoor coffee shop …

I continue to check my little dashboard of #SanFrancisco COVID numbers each morning to decide whether to get coffee at an indoor coffee shop or a pushchart. You might remember that I track three stats. I blog about it when some stat crosses from a pretty-safe value to a not-so-safe value or vice-versa. A couple of weeks back, I blogged to point out that two out of those three stats were annoyingly wriggling above-and-below the "pretty-safe" line. Today I blog with good news and bad news. Good news: they stopped wriggling above-and-below. Bad news: they're both staying above the line; and when some slow wastewater data finally showed up, it turns out that the COVID-in-wastewater stat never actually dipped into the "pretty-safe" zone.

graph charting 3 stats over the last couple of months. The green COVID-in-wastewater line starts out about 50% over 'pretty-safe', dips down to almost-pretty-safe, then goes back up to a little over pretty-safe. The purple test-positivity starts out firmly in pretty-safe territory; for the last month and a half, it's been jaggedly making its way over the pretty-safe line; lately the jags have continued, but alas the dips remain above the pretty-safe line. The red line, new cases started out nearly-invisibly low; lately, it's still low, but alas, not nearly as low as it was

It's weird that the test positivity number has gone up so much at the same time that the COVID-in-wastewater has gone down. It's weird that SF's COVID-in-wastewater went down at the same time that the overall San Francisco Bay Area's number has gone up. What does it all mean? Your guess is as good as mine.

Anyhow, I'm still going places: a couple of stats are kinda-high but one stat is still low. When I multiply them together, overall things still seem low. I'm not so happy that the two reliable indicators are bad while the not-so-reliable indicator is good. I made this little dashboard so I could quickly glance at it and know what to do. That one out-of-step stat has me second-guessing things. This morning, I did my grocery shopping in person (not swapping air with many people doing my grocery shopping before 7am), but didn't drop in to the Beanery for coffee on the way home (lots of customers at the Beanery, even around 7am).

Note to self: Before today, I just multiplied these numbers together. But today, I was looking askance at the New Cases number. I changed my multiplying formula to give more "weight" to the COVID-in-wastewater and test positive% numbers.

Anyhow, keep an eye out for each other. Don't be surprised if your neighbor who makes their decisions solely based on recent test-postitive% numbers has been keeping to themselves lately.