miniplague

I continue to check my little dashboard of #SanFrancisco COVID numbers each morning to decide whether to get coffee at an indoor coffee shop or a pushchart. You might remember that I track three stats. I blog about it when some stat crosses from a pretty-safe value to a not-so-safe value or vice-versa. A couple of weeks back, I blogged to point out that two out of those three stats were annoyingly wriggling above-and-below the "pretty-safe" line. Today I blog with good news and bad news. Good news: they stopped wriggling above-and-below. Bad news: they're both staying above the line; and when some slow wastewater data finally showed up, it turns out that the COVID-in-wastewater stat never actually dipped into the "pretty-safe" zone.

graph charting 3 stats over the last couple of months. The green COVID-in-wastewater line starts out about 50% over 'pretty-safe', dips down to almost-pretty-safe, then goes back up to a little over pretty-safe. The purple test-positivity starts out firmly in pretty-safe territory; for the last month and a half, it's been jaggedly making its way over the pretty-safe line; lately the jags have continued, but alas the dips remain above the pretty-safe line. The red line, new cases started out nearly-invisibly low; lately, it's still low, but alas, not nearly as low as it was

It's weird that the test positivity number has gone up so much at the same time that the COVID-in-wastewater has gone down. It's weird that SF's COVID-in-wastewater went down at the same time that the overall San Francisco Bay Area's number has gone up. What does it all mean? Your guess is as good as mine.

Anyhow, I'm still going places: a couple of stats are kinda-high but one stat is still low. When I multiply them together, overall things still seem low. I'm not so happy that the two reliable indicators are bad while the not-so-reliable indicator is good. I made this little dashboard so I could quickly glance at it and know what to do. That one out-of-step stat has me second-guessing things. This morning, I did my grocery shopping in person (not swapping air with many people doing my grocery shopping before 7am), but didn't drop in to the Beanery for coffee on the way home (lots of customers at the Beanery, even around 7am).

Note to self: Before today, I just multiplied these numbers together. But today, I was looking askance at the New Cases number. I changed my multiplying formula to give more "weight" to the COVID-in-wastewater and test positive% numbers.

Anyhow, keep an eye out for each other. Don't be surprised if your neighbor who makes their decisions solely based on recent test-postitive% numbers has been keeping to themselves lately.

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I continue to check my little dashboard of #SanFrancisco COVID numbers each morning to decide whether to go inside the local good-but-not-amazing sandwich shop. If you've been following me for a while, you might remember that I track three stats. I blog about it when some stat crosses from a pretty-safe value to a not-so-safe value or vice-versa; but first I wait a week after the stat crosses the pretty-safe-line to see if it stays on that side of the line. These stats are pretty noisy, and I don't want to blog "Everybody panic!" on Monday and then "Everybody stop panicking!" on Wednesday. Usually, things settle down within a week or two and then I do/don't blog about it as appropriate. But lately, stuff has been happening and not settling down. Below is a graph of how things have been going in SF for the last two months. A couple of stats have been bouncing up and down across the pretty-safe line for the past ~three weeks.

chart tracking three values over the past 60 days. the red stat, tracking new reported COVID cases in SF, started near zero and has gradually ramped up to low-but-noticeable. The purple stat % of positive PCR covid tests started low, but then trended upwards to the pretty-safe line; for the past few weeks it has bounced above and below the pretty-safe line. The green COVID-in-wastewater stat started out a little above the pretty-safe line (eek!), strangely trended down to safe levels during the same stretch of time the %positive PCR tests stat trended up. Lately, it's bounced high again; but it's a very bouncy stat

Yeah, it's weird that the COVID-in-wastewater stat was going down at the same time that the other stats were going up. It's not necessarily super-weird; if there's a surge, you don't necessarily see it in all the stats at the same time. But it's weird that SF's wastewater number was going down at the same time that California's overall wastewater number was going up; also at the same time that the overall San Francisco Bay Area's wastewater number was going up. Over the past few weeks, the California Department of Public Health, for all regions they track, has raised their level from "Very Low" to "Low". ("Low" doesn't sound so bad until you remember that the Department is thinking in terms of "Have things gotten bad enough yet such that hospitals in the region are filling up and we should send patients to other regions?")

Anyhow, what have I been doing lately, indoor-sandwich-wise? As I did half a year ago, I'm still going inside places. But if these stats ever make up their mind on "up" vs "down" and choose "up," then I might restrict myself to getting sandwiches at Luke's Local, who will hand them to me through the window.

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I continue to check my little dashboard of #SanFrancisco COVID numbers each morning to decide whether to go get professionally made coffee at my local Peet's or make so-so coffee at home. As you may recall, I track three numbers: number of positive (i.e. sick) tests; % positive tests; and COVID detected in wastewater. A couple of weeks ago, the COVID-in-wastewater number zoomed up sharply. It was so sharp, I assumed it was just a momentary blip (wastewater numbers are noisy), but it stuck around. The last time I blogged about these numbers, it was because all three were at "pretty safe" levels. This time, I'm blogging to note that they're not all pretty-safe. I'll still go out for coffee,* though. The COVID-in-wastewater isn't super high, and the PCR test levels are still low.

graph charting three measurements over the past 60 days. two measurements have stayed low the whole time: number of positive PCR tests and % of positive PCR tests. The green line, COVID in wastewater has generally been higher (though below the 'pretty safe' line. A couple of weeks ago, it shot up to about 50% over the safe level. since then, though it's wobbled, it's stayed at about the same level

I dunno why the COVID-in-wastewater went up so much. I just saw an article about how recent improvements at the Southeast Treatment Plant helped it smell better, I thought maybe someone moved a sensor after they re-opened that part of the plant. But now that I double-check, I see that work happened a few months ago. So, uh, 🤷

*Joke's on me: The new Peet's corporate closed my local shop. I guess I'll make my own coffee at home after all.

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